Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A5 0xa5ce…3aa7 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%10W / 6L

Drawdown91%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+18.2%	+6.9%	62%	62%	-6.5%
≤30d	16	+18.2%	+6.9%	62%	62%	-6.5%
≤90d	16	+18.2%	+6.9%	62%	62%	-6.5%
all	16	+18.2%	+6.9%	62%	62%	-6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+6.9%	62%	-6.5%
10% ← realistic here	-3.3%	56%	-15.4%
15%	-12.7%	44%	-23.6%
20%	-21.2%	38%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$42 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$25

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses10 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown91%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 18	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 18	$89	−$81	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 18	$61	−$59	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 18	$63	+$28	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 18	$59	+$51	+87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$78	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 18	$39	+$23	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 18	$39	+$11	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 18	$39	+$36	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 18	$38	+$7	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 18	$32	+$39	+121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 18	$117	−$2	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$5	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$3	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$4	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$105	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$8	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$89	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$61	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$92	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$63	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$110	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$59	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$129	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$62	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$75	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$71	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$38	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$98	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$17	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records