Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5ca…36ff world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+3%) realized +$97 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
other 24% +$35
sports 22% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 10 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 20% -7.2%
all 10 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 20% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 20% -7.2%
10% -12.9% 10% -16.0%
15% -21.3% 10% -24.2%
20% -29.1% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.97 per $1 lost it wins $34.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage97d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $380 $384 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $381 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 19 $258 −$3 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $475 +$35 +7%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $472 $0 +0%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) May 28 $487 +$52 +11%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $491 $0 +0%
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $367 +$4 +1%
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $367 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $333 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Leo Team (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Apr 01 $14 +$6 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.80 · official $383.80 (match) · 23 history records