Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5c9…1e01 sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,806 (-2%) realized −$1,806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%34W / 20L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,408per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$652
7 days−$379
14 days−$2,727
30 days−$2,745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$2,014
other 42% −$731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 55% -8.6%
≤30d 54 +8.9% -1.5% 63% 50% -11.9%
≤90d 54 +8.9% -1.5% 63% 50% -11.9%
all 54 +8.9% -1.5% 63% 50% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 50% -11.9%
10% -10.9% 20% -20.4%
15% -19.5% 15% -28.0%
20% -27.4% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,966) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$590 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses34 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,408
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,150 +$230 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $996 +$156 +16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $862 +$134 +16%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $879 −$17 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $724 +$149 +21%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $647 +$82 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $443 +$203 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $458 −$16 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $592 −$134 -23%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,589 −$804 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,857 −$463 -25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,616 +$242 +15%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2,004 −$386 -19%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,542 +$659 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,310 +$228 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,109 +$205 +18%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $894 +$216 +24%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $523 +$367 +70%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,305 −$764 -59%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,125 +$176 +16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $507 −$451 -89%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,018 −$432 -42%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,650 −$642 -24%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,029 +$619 +30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,179 −$148 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,809 +$367 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,004 +$149 +15%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,250 +$409 +33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,270 −$18 -1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,113 −$857 -41%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,966 +$161 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,447 +$517 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,243 −$2,799 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,075 +$170 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3,524 +$217 +6%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,801 +$1,053 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,514 +$287 +11%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,293 +$220 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,151 +$143 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,785 +$367 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,506 +$280 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,464 +$43 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,330 +$135 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$195 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $614 −$610 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $326 +$288 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $282 +$45 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $540 −$257 -48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $290 +$249 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $339 −$50 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,380 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,150 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,152 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $996 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 96¢ $996 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $862 14h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $862 16h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $879 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $873 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $724 39h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $729 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $647 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 79¢ $603 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $44 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $443 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $442 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $458 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $459 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $592 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $590 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,183 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $195 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $406 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,395 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,857 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,858 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,616 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $1,619 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,004 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records