Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa5c3…1f5f crypto 611 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24,389 (-28%) realized −$24,170 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%283W / 315L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day104.9pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,756
crypto 44% +$5,393
other 2% +$212
world 0% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -0.7% -10.1% 44% 39% -10.1%
≤30d 598 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 44% -4.8%
≤90d 598 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 44% -4.8%
all 598 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 44% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 44% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 42% -13.9%
15% -26.6% 39% -22.2%
20% -33.8% 34% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$83 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$6,129
Realized−$24,170
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses283 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions14
Markets (closed)598 / 611
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day104.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $976 $990 +$14 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $733 $741 +$9 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $620 $611 −$9 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $587 $597 +$10 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $488 $496 +$7 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $493 $493 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $471 $482 +$10 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $478 $480 +$2 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $431 $452 +$22 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $388 $393 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $210 $226 +$16 (+8%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 44¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 36¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$4 +31%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $147 +$103 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$74 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$15 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$17 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -34%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$98 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$26 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $164 +$86 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$30 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$12 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$10 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $794 −$147 -18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$148 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$9 -72%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $554 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $110 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 1¢ $2 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 57¢ $144 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $162 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,128.93 · official $6,128.93 (match) · 3500 history records