Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c2…24b5 sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$395 (-4%) realized −$372 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$461
14 days−$345
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$126
sports 50% −$457
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 36% -25.4%
≤30d 78 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 42% -17.2%
≤90d 86 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 42% -19.1%
all 96 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 39% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 39% -15.3%
10% -22.6% 35% -23.4%
15% -30.1% 34% -30.8%
20% -36.9% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$38 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$372
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 55
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage255d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 11¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$15 -27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $171 −$100 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $53 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $46 +$20 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$70 +344%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $66 +$97 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$5 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$30 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $205 +$175 +85%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 +$58 +77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $428 +$72 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$28 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $494 −$493 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $87 +$54 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$53 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $80 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $111 −$10 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $37 −$17 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $24 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$31 +202%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $77 +$31 +40%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $81 +$45 +55%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$60 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 7¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 19¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 57¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 26¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 76¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 70¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $41 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 34¢ $67 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 4¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $26 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 1¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 16¢ $21 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 50¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 73¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 628 history records