Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c2…6d54 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-7%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%73W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$169
sports 4% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 134 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 37% -17.8%
≤90d 134 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 37% -17.8%
all 134 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 37% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 37% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 28% -25.7%
15% -35.4% 22% -32.8%
20% -41.8% 16% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses73 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$11 -83%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$4 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $14 +$18 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $27 −$4 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$24 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records