Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c1…0cff other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,337 (+1%) realized +$1,337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%28W / 132L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,276per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$141
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$103
other 37% +$392
sports 13% +$1,023
world 4% −$5
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -7.2% -16.0% 9% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 117 -10.0% -18.5% 8% 3% -9.1%
all 160 -2.8% -12.1% 18% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -8.9%
10% -20.5% 8% -17.7%
15% -28.2% 7% -25.6%
20% -35.2% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,763) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$7 · ×10.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$1,337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses28 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,276
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $596 $595 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,777 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,692 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,763 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,292 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,146 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $686 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,705 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $655 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $317 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,619 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,427 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $57 +$26 +46%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $715 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,610 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $5,073 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $4,879 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $596 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $491 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $492 4h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $498 43h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $498 45h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $535 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $535 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $602 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $599 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $600 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $603 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $604 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $604 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $605 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $602 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $603 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $606 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $647 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $161 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $648 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $746 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $747 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $765 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $650 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $651 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $767 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $768 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.10 · official $756.10 (match) · 540 history records