Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5be…8d0b other 39 markets active 20h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$39 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$7
sports 7% +$15
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 31% +11.5%
≤30d 13 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 31% +11.5%
≤90d 14 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 29% +7.8%
all 14 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 29% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 29% +7.8%
10% -16.1% 29% -2.5%
15% -24.2% 29% -12.0%
20% -31.7% 29% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)14 / 39
History coverage47d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+21%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 36¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-37%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +117%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$56 +370%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 25¢ $5 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 10¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 7¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY 14¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.34 · official $389.38 · 102 history records