Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa5bc…cd69 world 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$78 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate75%137W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$64
14 days−$19
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$81
politics 21% +$119
sports 6% +$4
other 6% −$3
economics 3% +$6
crypto 2% +$3
weather 2% +$7
finance 1% +$10
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 18% -5.5%
≤30d 78 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 14% -8.3%
≤90d 182 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 18% -8.9%
all 182 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 18% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 18% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 9% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses137 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)182 / 193
History coverage79d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+34%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 83¢ 82¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 52¢ 38¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-28%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-28%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $107 −$8 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $55 −$25 -45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $444 −$51 -12%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $55 +$4 +7%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $65 +$9 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $282 +$137 +49%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $165 −$8 -5%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$4 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 +$55 +100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $74 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $55 +$38 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $110 −$8 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$8 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $110 −$34 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $8 −$3 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $110 −$38 -35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 −$2 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electio Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gina Viola finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will David Atchley be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $61 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $165 −$11 -7%
Will "Robert Icke" win Best Direction of a Play at the 2026 Tony Award Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $110 +$17 +15%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $55 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $19 43h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 83¢ $55 44h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 44h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 44h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $52 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 82¢ $55 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $27 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $33 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.36 · official $505.36 (match) · 644 history records