Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5b4…6f5b politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,631 (+1%) realized +$1,631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,548per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days−$43
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$115
other 44% +$15
world 3% −$7
economics 3% −$7
sports 2% +$1,693
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 +5.6% -4.4% 7% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 114 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 8% -8.7%
all 118 +1.1% -8.6% 10% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 7% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 7% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,794) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$6 · ×32.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,548
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $273 $273 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $677 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,924 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,119 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4,104 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $3,075 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,027 −$3 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $64 +$121 +188%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,123 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,917 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,659 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $47 +$75 +158%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $400 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,336 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,681 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $2,726 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $80 +$103 +129%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,359 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $676 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $677 6h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $697 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $698 24h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $895 24h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $896 27h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,165 29h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 31h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $616 45h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $617 47h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $643 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $643 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $612 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $613 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,432 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,435 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,435 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,438 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,475 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,477 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,456 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,458 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,401 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,403 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,439 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,440 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,538 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,541 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,538 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,540 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.02 · official $273.02 (match) · 406 history records