Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5b3…4121 other 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$37
sports 27% −$22
politics 9% −$9
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage136d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $515 −$2 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $295 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $446 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $603 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $543 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $152 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $241 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 5h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 20h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 33h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 36h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 38h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 42h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 44h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.64 · official $61.64 (match) · 1358 history records