Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5ab…ff89 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$405 (-2%) realized +$63 · open −$468
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days+$264
14 days+$264
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$227
sports 42% +$1,107
world 9% −$597
politics 3% −$209
crypto 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.9% -23.9% 36% 36% -7.0%
≤30d 25 -15.9% -23.9% 36% 36% -7.0%
≤90d 34 -38.0% -43.9% 26% 26% -16.3%
all 55 -24.2% -31.4% 36% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 31% -9.3%
10% -38.0% 29% -18.0%
15% -44.0% 24% -25.9%
20% -49.4% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$215 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$2,930
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$468
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage219d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $801 $798 −$3 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $650 $644 −$6 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $450 $454 +$4 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $266 +$16 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $225 −$25 (-10%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $422 $211 −$211 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $190 −$160 (-46%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $105 −$45 (-30%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $38 −$38 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $458 −$450 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $484 −$475 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $608 −$600 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $610 +$734 +120%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $610 +$699 +114%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$683 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $356 −$350 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $356 −$350 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $509 +$682 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $304 +$273 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $866 −$850 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $611 +$862 +141%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $185 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $93 −$90 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $559 +$596 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $457 +$521 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $458 −$450 -98%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 17 $297 −$278 -94%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $300 +$100 +33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $396 −$44 -11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $300 +$112 +37%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jan 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $1,000 +$47 +5%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverry Jan 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Jan 25 $175 −$175 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $200 −$125 -62%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 24 $100 +$14 +14%
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 24 $200 +$313 +156%
Will FC København vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jan 22 $200 +$192 +96%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $427 +$429 +101%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $300 −$60 -20%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 20 $556 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $658 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $456 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $458 12h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $360 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $76 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $408 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 94¢ $1,309 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $508 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $610 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $990 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $356 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $356 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 36¢ $357 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $185 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $93 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $153 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $509 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $509 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $458 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,929.77 · official $2,929.88 (match) · 266 history records