Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa5aa…e292
sports · 684 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$1,274 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,114 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,193
Realized+$1,114
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses361 / 299
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions24
Markets (closed)660 / 684
History coverage180d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 24 History 660 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$132
14 days−$487
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $170 $164 −$5 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $96 $112 +$17 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $82 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 52¢ 46¢ $52 $46 −$6 (-11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 52¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ 48¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ 38¢ $41 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 57¢ 56¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 46¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 29¢ $32 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 +$24 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $282 +$118 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$43 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$102 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $25 +$25 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $33 +$27 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 +$11 +60%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$9 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$30 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 +$29 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $144 +$156 +108%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $43 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $9 +$21 +216%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $164 −$162 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 +$24 +65%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $21 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $72 +$48 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $28 +$12 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 +$25 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $33 +$17 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 +$15 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $53 +$17 +32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $35 −$34 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $109 −$96 -88%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $55 +$45 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $21 +$9 +40%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $48 +$52 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $109 −$65 -60%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $25 +$15 +57%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 +$15 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$701
other 17% +$148
crypto 11% +$112
world 1% −$86
finance 1% +$164
weather 1% +$8
politics 0% +$40
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $22 4m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $33 22m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $39 23m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $19 26m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $42 27m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $60 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $36 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $45 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $23 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $37 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $53 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $21 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $13 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $220 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $45 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $18 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $3 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $131 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $82 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $35 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 60% -5.3%
≤30d 461 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 49% -7.1%
≤90d 628 -1.2% -10.7% 53% 51% -3.8%
all 660 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 52% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 52% -3.6%
10% -17.6% 47% -12.8%
15% -25.5% 40% -21.2%
20% -32.8% 31% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,193.01 · official $1,192.11 (match) · 1967 history records