Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5a8…bf60 sports 984 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,755 (+2%) realized +$3,755 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%546W / 437L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2,154est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days−$1,454
14 days−$5,707
30 days−$3,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,223
other 3% +$579
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.2% -19.6% 55% 55% -58.9%
≤30d 159 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 49% -18.9%
≤90d 538 +1.5% -8.1% 54% 53% -10.3%
all 983 +2.7% -7.0% 56% 55% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 55% -8.8%
10% -15.9% 54% -17.5%
15% -24.1% 50% -25.5%
20% -31.5% 40% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$183 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3,755
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses546 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)983 / 984
History coverage200d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 983 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$54 +107%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $254 +$33 +13%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $59 −$50 -85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $212 +$96 +46%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $285 −$285 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $201 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$132 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $173 +$231 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $863 −$707 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $811 −$811 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $994 −$994 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $742 +$153 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $254 −$38 -15%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $355 −$180 -51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $416 −$342 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$106 -69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $204 −$198 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 +$147 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,262 −$243 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $356 +$240 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $486 +$16 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $505 −$10 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$2 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$69 -67%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$160 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $276 −$276 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $457 −$457 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$154 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$154 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $345 +$223 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$168 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $136 −$136 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner SELL Acend 100¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 48¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL Walczaki 50¢ $287 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $182 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 55¢ $101 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 9¢ $9 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 57¢ $59 21h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $101 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $31 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $18 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $19 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $4 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 43¢ $173 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $169 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $101 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $212 30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $101 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $285 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $244 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $293 9d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $335 9d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $203 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $201 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $404 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $173 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,110 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.65 (match) · 2244 history records