Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5a5…7ff1 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
politics 24% $0
other 22% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage271d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $58 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $2 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $23 $0 -1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $3 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $27 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $28 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $14 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $28 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $27 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records