Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A5 0xa5a2…6f29 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$189 (+25%) realized +$190 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +212% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +171% what you keep after slip

Net edge+171%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$192per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+182.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+212.0%	+182.3%	33%	33%	-10.1%
≤30d	3	+212.0%	+182.3%	33%	33%	-10.1%
≤90d	3	+212.0%	+182.3%	33%	33%	-10.1%
all	3	+212.0%	+182.3%	33%	33%	-10.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+182.3%	33%	-10.1%
10%	+155.3%	33%	-18.7%
15%	+130.6%	33%	-26.5%
20%	+108.0%	33%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +212% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$443 vs −$224 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$109

Realized+$190

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$192

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$110	$109	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$292	−$182	-62%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$307	−$266	-86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$56	+$443	+784%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$111	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	27¢	$0	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	27¢	$111	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$292	8h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$42	18h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$307	21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$499	21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$56	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.23 · official $109.23 (match) · 8 history records