Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A5 0xa5a2…ad5a sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
≤30d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
all 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -19.0%
10% -19.0% 50% -26.8%
15% -26.8% 50% -33.9%
20% -34.0% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 88¢ 84¢ $388 $368 −$20 (-5%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 94¢ $187 $224 +$37 (+20%)
Spread: England (-3.5) Ghana 80¢ 90¢ $101 $113 +$12 (+12%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 66¢ $132 $103 −$29 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $29 +$11 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $17 +$27 +156%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $93 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $195 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 80¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $95 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $195 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $133 2h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 66¢ $21 4h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $20 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 71¢ $29 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 52¢ $9 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 38¢ $17 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $808.16 · official $813.32 (match) · 13 history records