Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa59f…47e9 sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%31W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$27
14 days−$42
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$16
politics 29% −$13
other 22% −$25
economics 6% −$8
crypto 4% −$9
world 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 13% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 86 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.3%
all 353 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses31 / 322
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage654d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 21 $197 −$3 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 20 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $156 −$2 -2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $227 −$4 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $379 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $54 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $183 −$3 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $42 −$5 -12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $173 −$3 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $57 −$2 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $240 −$2 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $54 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $305 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 08 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $77 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $124 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $164 −$2 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $69 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $70 5h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $72 6h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $74 10h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 96¢ $38 10h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $29 17h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $10 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $59 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $60 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $52 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $52 29h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $63 30h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $64 38h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $64 38h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $65 43h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $40 44h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $49 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $54 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.43 · official $65.43 (match) · 1316 history records