Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa59f…d937 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$10 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
sports 13% −$8
tech 6% +$12
finance 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.7% -11.0% 58% 37% -10.1%
≤30d 19 -1.7% -11.0% 58% 37% -10.1%
≤90d 19 -1.7% -11.0% 58% 37% -10.1%
all 19 -1.7% -11.0% 58% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 37% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 32% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 26% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $80 $91 +$11 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $6 +$5 (+513%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Tunisia $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$5 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $215 +$14 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 +$26 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $290 +$1 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $12 +$8 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $70 +$6 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $110 +$14 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 22m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 58m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 67¢ $49 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 23h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $2 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $50 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.78 · official $129.80 (match) · 64 history records