Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa59b…d94d crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+8%) realized +$46 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$25
sports 30% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -5.2%
≤30d 17 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -5.2%
≤90d 17 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -5.2%
all 17 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 47% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 47% -14.3%
15% -32.1% 41% -22.6%
20% -38.8% 29% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 56¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$39 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Austria leading at halftime? BUY 51¢ $41 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $30 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.41 · official $89.17 · 37 history records