Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa599…5230 sports 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,224 (-7%) realized −$1,134 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%93W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day132.0pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$1,682
14 days−$1,587
30 days−$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,240
other 18% −$333
world 1% −$40
crypto 1% −$43
politics 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -14.6% -22.7% 34% 21% -19.3%
≤30d 264 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 22% -18.6%
≤90d 264 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 22% -18.6%
all 264 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 22% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 22% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 19% -26.4%
15% -35.6% 16% -33.5%
20% -42.0% 12% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$28 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$1,134
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses93 / 171
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions12
Markets (closed)264 / 276
History coverage13d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day132.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 68¢ $200 $147 −$53 (-26%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Türkiye 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 74¢ 71¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $205 +$211 +103%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $205 +$225 +110%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $122 −$52 -42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $202 −$5 -3%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $103 +$115 +112%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 +$169 +164%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $202 +$15 +7%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $202 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $21 +$51 +246%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 +$13 +63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 −$8 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 +$28 +34%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 +$98 +96%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $52 +$211 +409%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$17 +33%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $257 +$220 +86%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $52 +$179 +346%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $204 −$9 -4%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $193 −$7 -4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $202 −$2 -1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $202 −$4 -2%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $103 +$102 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $255 −$4 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $153 +$3 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $51 +$7 +15%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $202 +$10 +5%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $203 −$12 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 24 $51 +$22 +42%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 24 $51 −$13 -26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$5 -5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $203 +$2 +1%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $305 −$138 -45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $205 −$100 -49%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $408 −$400 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $52 −$7 -14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $52 −$10 -18%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $20 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $197 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $100 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $51 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $52 5h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $200 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 8h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 28¢ $21 12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 92¢ $20 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 12h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 12h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $51 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 13h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $51 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $51 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 14h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 15h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $20 16h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 48¢ $197 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.50 · official $330.10 · 1874 history records