Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa595…cdf1 weather 1115 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-5%) realized −$382 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%552W / 562L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$234
14 days−$104
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$365
other 0% +$10
tech 0% −$18
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -39.2% -45.0% 53% 18% -26.5%
≤30d 219 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 31% -13.1%
≤90d 942 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 28% -15.5%
all 1114 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 30% -14.6%
10% -20.8% 23% -22.8%
15% -28.5% 20% -30.3%
20% -35.5% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses552 / 562
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1114 / 1115
History coverage138d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $38 $48 +$10 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $96 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $57 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 2? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 1? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 3? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 07 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $57 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $48 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 05 $59 +$56 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 04 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 53m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 53m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 77¢ $38 54m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 56m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $95 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $71 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $33 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 38h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.12 · official $48.12 (match) · 2895 history records