Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa595…e012 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 35% $0
politics 11% +$2
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 26 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $31 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 18m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 25d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 184d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 364d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 386d
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect BUY Yes 88¢ $15 399d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $15 400d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 400d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 402d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? SELL No 98¢ $6 403d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? SELL No 98¢ $9 403d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? BUY No 98¢ $15 403d
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? SELL No 98¢ $15 403d
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? BUY No 98¢ $15 403d
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? SELL No 99¢ $15 404d
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? BUY No 99¢ $15 404d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records