Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa593…6d6e
other · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage312d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2025 WTA Montreal tournament? Aug 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 07 $69 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 06 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% $0
world 20% $0
tech 16% $0
politics 14% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 6% −$25
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $40 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $31 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $9 24h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $44 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $24 4d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $16 297d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $11 298d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 299d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 299d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 97¢ $24 299d
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 299d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 299d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 97¢ $24 299d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 299d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 299d
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 299d
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 299d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 300d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 300d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 20% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 20% -9.6%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 44% 3% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -12.5%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.64 · official $8.64 (match) · 88 history records