Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa58e…f482 crypto 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate77%113W / 34L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$224
politics 5% +$114
world 2% +$2
sports 1% +$36
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$53
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 50% -3.0%
≤30d 7 +10.9% +0.3% 100% 29% -3.9%
≤90d 120 -2.0% -11.3% 78% 12% -10.4%
all 147 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 12% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses113 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage127d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $161 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $20 +$10 +50%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 07 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 30 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 30 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11AM ET Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 31 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 31 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12PM ET Mar 30 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 30 $200 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 30 $400 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11AM ET Mar 30 $130 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 30 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 30 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 30 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 30 $205 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 29 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 29 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 28 $301 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$13 +1313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 28 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 28 $101 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $108 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $135 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $130 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $114 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $501 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $400 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.01 · official $101.01 (match) · 491 history records