Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa58d…c97e
weather · 203 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$11 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$158
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 67
Open positions99
Markets (closed)104 / 203
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day103.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 99 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+244%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? No 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 87¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? No 69¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 43¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$20 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$13 +1262%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$21 +805%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +233%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$9
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +27.3% +15.1% 36% 35% +3.3%
≤30d 104 +27.3% +15.1% 36% 35% +3.3%
≤90d 104 +27.3% +15.1% 36% 35% +3.3%
all 104 +27.3% +15.1% 36% 35% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.1% 35% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here +4.1% 34% -6.5%
15% -5.9% 29% -15.6%
20% -15.2% 26% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.71 · official $157.72 (match) · 474 history records