Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa58d…b9b8
other · 160 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,445 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,265 · open −$1,802
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$18,127
Realized−$1,265
Unrealized−$1,802
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses121 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions174
Markets (closed)420 / 160
Avg bet$524
Trades / day395.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 174 History 420 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,212
7 days−$2,146
14 days−$1,265
30 days−$1,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,828 $3,126 +$297 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,837 $1,939 +$102 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,279 $1,275 −$3 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $920 $935 +$15 (+2%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%? No 74¢ 86¢ $587 $686 +$98 (+17%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $826 $675 −$151 (-18%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? No 87¢ 90¢ $651 $673 +$22 (+3%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 93¢ 89¢ $576 $551 −$25 (-4%)
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch No 70¢ 78¢ $385 $424 +$40 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? No 27¢ 36¢ $306 $410 +$104 (+34%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? No 74¢ 59¢ $502 $401 −$101 (-20%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $376 $400 +$24 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $425 $399 −$26 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 94¢ 92¢ $403 $392 −$11 (-3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $355 $370 +$15 (+4%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $591 $325 −$267 (-45%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $280 $274 −$6 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 70¢ 26¢ $704 $255 −$448 (-64%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch No 85¢ 86¢ $238 $240 +$2 (+1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $235 $223 −$12 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $210 $222 +$12 (+6%)
OPEC dissolves in 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $299 $215 −$84 (-28%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $210 $195 −$15 (-7%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $263 $179 −$84 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $5 −$1,763 -33058%
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +814%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex Consani be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 12 $8 −$9 -115%
Will Simone Biles be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1114%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B? Jun 12 $13 +$14 +107%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $57 −$66 -115%
Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 12 $0 +$43 +21180%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Richardson Electronics (RELL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$66 +253%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
ZachXBT investigation post over 8M views on day one? Jun 12 $81 −$79 -98%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -112%
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" in Rome, GA on February 19? Jun 12 $0 +$26 +49092%
Will Thailand capture Preah Vihear temple by Dec 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Franco Parisi win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Jun 12 $1 −$2 -332%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$10 -39%
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m? Jun 12 $35 −$47 -135%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 20? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Donald Trump praise Vladimir Putin on Friday? Jun 12 $76 −$43 -56%
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of November 10 above $215? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $110 −$111 -101%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 27? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? Jun 12 $18 −$25 -137%
Will Honeywell International (HON) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $57 −$67 -117%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
ZachXBT investigation post over 10M views on day one? Jun 12 $39 −$43 -111%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $465 −$2,420 -520%
Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -177%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of November? Jun 12 $18 −$19 -105%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in October 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29? Jun 12 $1 −$92 -6852%
Will PJT Partners (PJT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 9? Jun 12 $1 +$22 +2240%
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$5,471
politics 20% +$1,227
world 11% +$91
tech 9% +$366
sports 3% −$472
finance 2% +$410
crypto 1% +$22
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 90¢ $201 1m
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 6m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 19m
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 42m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 64¢ $42 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 90¢ $88 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 90¢ $40 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 90¢ $14 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 64¢ $11 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 64¢ $33 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 +81.8% +64.5% 27% 20% -8.1%
≤30d 420 +81.6% +64.3% 29% 22% -7.1%
≤90d 420 +81.6% +64.3% 29% 22% -7.1%
all 420 +81.6% +64.3% 29% 22% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover395.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.3% 22% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here +48.6% 16% -16.0%
15% +34.2% 14% -24.1%
20% +21.1% 13% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,127.07 · official $18,125.06 (match) · 3500 history records