Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa58c…56e3
sports · 1063 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$1,203 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,121 · open +$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,321
Realized+$1,121
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses769 / 258
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1027 / 1063
History coverage66d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 46 History 1027 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$152
14 days+$239
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $208 $224 +$16 (+8%)
Will Audi Revolut get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 93¢ $66 $102 +$36 (+54%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 85¢ 94¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 94¢ 94¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $57 $45 −$11 (-20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 72¢ $16 $36 +$20 (+127%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alpine get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 88¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 80¢ 78¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 75¢ 76¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 60¢ 74¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 64¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+87%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 88¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$6 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$3 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$17 +77%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $19 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$12 +64%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$8 +61%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +117%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$10 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 +$2 +22%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$6 +85%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $16 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $17 +$8 +47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$5 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $6 +$4 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $14 +$6 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $22 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$673
other 29% +$584
crypto 8% −$15
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 90¢ $9 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $7 27m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 58¢ $6 28m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 58¢ $6 29m
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL No 95¢ $66 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $16 58m
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL No 5¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 85¢ $117 1h
Will Audi Revolut get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Will Alpine get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $8 5h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $6 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $6 7h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 7h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 60% -1.1%
≤30d 497 +5.5% -4.5% 74% 57% -7.2%
≤90d 1027 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 56% -5.7%
all 1027 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 56% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 56% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 37% -14.7%
15% -20.6% 23% -23.0%
20% -28.4% 15% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,321.38 · official $1,338.85 · 3500 history records