Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa58c…a1e2
politics · 201 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,429 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,449 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$607
Realized−$1,449
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses89 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage438d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$242
14 days+$145
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 55¢ 57¢ $388 $405 +$17 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? No 25¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? No $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$212 +208%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 10 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 07 $50 +$36 +72%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 05 $203 −$28 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $212 −$92 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 04 $16 +$5 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $52 +$24 +45%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 31 $20 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $72 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 20 $6 −$6 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 11 $93 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 07 $30 +$24 +79%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $166 −$23 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? May 06 $24 −$8 -34%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April? May 01 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $26 +$23 +89%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 01 $94 +$40 +42%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Apr 29 $54 −$16 -29%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? Apr 25 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Apr 25 $17 +$2 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April? Apr 18 $34 +$46 +135%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June? Apr 17 $92 +$117 +128%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Apr 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Apr 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 11 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $129 +$33 +26%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? Mar 30 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Mar 28 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $18 +$3 +17%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $20 +$7 +32%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Mar 26 $9 −$4 -41%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? Mar 24 $20 −$18 -89%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? Mar 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? Mar 23 $97 −$10 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$817
sports 12% +$253
politics 11% −$876
economics 10% +$12
tech 10% +$26
world 8% +$7
finance 5% +$149
culture 5% −$121
crypto 3% −$61
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $30 24h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $43 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 23¢ $50 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $68 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 67% 50% +77.8%
≤30d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 33% +5.1%
≤90d 55 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 31% +3.4%
all 198 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 37% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 37% -21.2%
10% -24.5% 31% -28.7%
15% -31.8% 28% -35.6%
20% -38.5% 24% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.33 · official $607.33 (match) · 987 history records