Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa58b…57ca other 96 markets active 18h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%16W / 79L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$253
politics 19% −$5
sports 7% +$15
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -0.8%
≤30d 15 +5.0% -5.0% 20% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 95 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 12% -10.5%
all 95 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 12% -10.5%
10% -16.7% 12% -19.0%
15% -24.8% 11% -26.9%
20% -32.1% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses16 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage83d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $484 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $257 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $468 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $531 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $726 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $465 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 18h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $11 2d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $172 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $45 21d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $45 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $58 26d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $262 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $262 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.16 · official $171.16 (match) · 280 history records