Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa58a…1975 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% $0
other 39% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
all 21 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage117d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 32d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 33d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 38d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 39d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1 39d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $74 39d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $95 41d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $25 42d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $70 42d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 45d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $95 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 50d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 51d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $95 53d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $95 54d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 71d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 71d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 74d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records