Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa588…6b0e crypto 1073 markets active 3h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,647 (+21%) realized +$4,647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%555W / 527L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$911
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +19.8% +8.4% 63% 61% -3.3%
≤30d 994 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 49% -6.3%
≤90d 1082 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 51% -5.8%
all 1082 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 51% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 51% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 48% -14.8%
15% -26.7% 36% -23.0%
20% -33.9% 22% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4,647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses555 / 527
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1082 / 1073
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1082 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +59%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$9 +2447%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +37%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$13 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$25 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$17 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$10 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$73 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$129 +360%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$25 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$68 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $66 −$49 -74%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$15 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$37 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $13 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.59 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records