Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa588…ab68 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+12%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 40L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$26
sports 26% +$45
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 29% +3.5%
≤30d 56 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 29% +3.5%
≤90d 56 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 29% +3.5%
all 56 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 29% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 29% +3.5%
10% -25.8% 29% -6.4%
15% -33.0% 29% -15.4%
20% -39.5% 29% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)56 / 71
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 55¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 85¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +232%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +126%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +249%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +711%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +195%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +209%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +194%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 1h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 26h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 27h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 29h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.92 · official $62.69 (match) · 100 history records