Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa584…89d3 sports 587 markets active 13h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-14%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%242W / 345L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$184
14 days−$181
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$141
other 5% −$18
crypto 3% −$19
world 1% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 27% -51.4%
≤30d 128 -5.0% -14.0% 41% 41% -25.7%
≤90d 587 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -22.4%
all 587 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -22.4%
10% -23.7% 33% -29.9%
15% -31.1% 30% -36.6%
20% -37.8% 27% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses242 / 345
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)587 / 587
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 587 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $28 +$3 +11%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $21 +$8 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $17 +$4 +21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -63%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Se Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Play Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 53¢ $4 13h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 85¢ $35 14h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Florian Broska 100¢ $36 16h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 87¢ $31 17h
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou SELL Yi Zhou 100¢ $31 17h
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 90¢ $28 18h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 13¢ $1 18h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 72¢ $21 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 82¢ $17 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 85¢ $15 27h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $6 38h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 3¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $5 39h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $10 42h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 14¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 22¢ $1 45h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 8¢ $1 46h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 23¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 14¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1227 history records