Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa584…067e other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$855 (+6%) realized +$1,063 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days+$87
14 days−$433
30 days+$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,247
sports 8% −$870
crypto 5% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.3% -23.3% 40% 40% -2.4%
≤30d 16 +2.7% -7.0% 38% 38% +0.4%
≤90d 35 -8.0% -16.7% 34% 34% -3.8%
all 35 -8.0% -16.7% 34% 34% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -3.8%
10% -24.7% 34% -13.0%
15% -32.0% 34% -21.4%
20% -38.6% 34% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$573) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$704 vs −$333 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1,063
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage56d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 42¢ 1¢ $211 $3 −$208 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $233 −$230 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $450 +$403 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 −$93 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $145 +$195 +134%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $176 +$192 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $335 −$331 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $236 −$231 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $430 +$1,021 +238%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $519 +$1,022 +197%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $375 +$1,036 +276%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $745 −$729 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $770 −$757 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,180 −$579 -49%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $718 +$2,011 +280%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $873 −$829 -95%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $159 −$155 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $600 +$458 +76%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $832 −$818 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $401 −$392 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $931 −$916 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $83 −$81 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 04 $430 −$421 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $604 +$799 +132%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $156 +$110 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $280 +$1,003 +358%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $327 +$194 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $420 −$209 -50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $260 −$254 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $215 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $191 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $18 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $216 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $94 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $450 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $72 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $73 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $176 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $335 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $236 9d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 22¢ $150 11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 12d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 29¢ $430 26d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 33¢ $519 26d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 26¢ $372 27d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 26¢ $372 27d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 43¢ $770 27d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 26¢ $375 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL No 36¢ $578 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $450 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $6 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $6 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $6 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $6 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $3 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $3 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $2 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $1 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 36¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $3.77 (match) · 88 history records