Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa583…0695 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$433 (-15%) realized −$330 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip
Net edge+77%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$432
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+83.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +140.7% +117.8% 38% 15% -21.5%
≤30d 13 +140.7% +117.8% 38% 15% -21.5%
≤90d 13 +140.7% +117.8% 38% 15% -21.5%
all 17 +103.2% +83.8% 29% 12% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.8% 12% -24.3%
10% +66.2% 12% -31.5%
15% +50.2% 12% -38.1%
20% +35.4% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +245% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)17 / 45
History coverage137d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 18? No 14¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Yes 27¢ 62¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+128%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? No 31¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 42¢ 28¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-57%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? No 93¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? No 90¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? No 84¢ 36¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 90¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 20? No 33¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 89¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 18¢ 66¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+267%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 73¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 80¢ 34¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 20? No 48¢ 19¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? No 32¢ 4¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 41¢ 5¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $183 −$8 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 −$14 -24%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $43 −$11 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$16 -32%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $364 −$17 -5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 19? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $97 −$27 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$9 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
XRP Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $395 −$70 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $294 −$50 -17%
Solana Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $222 −$42 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $231 −$51 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 41m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 42m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 42m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 42m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $1 53m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 53m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 53m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 53m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 54m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 54m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 54m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 54m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 54m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 56m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 56m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.01 · official $139.15 (match) · 600 history records