Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa581…a14c crypto 1729 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,252 (-6%) realized −$1,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%1243W / 723L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,705
7 days−$1,486
14 days−$124
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 413 -70.2% -73.0% 16% 16% -26.3%
≤30d 820 -30.0% -36.7% 46% 34% -10.9%
≤90d 1966 -14.2% -22.3% 63% 44% -12.5%
all 1966 -14.2% -22.3% 63% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 44% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 27% -20.8%
15% -36.6% 21% -28.5%
20% -42.8% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1243 / 723
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1966 / 1729
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1966 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $46 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records