Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A5 0xa580…ba4c other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$580 (+16%) realized +$591 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$904per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$589now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-23.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-15.4%	-23.5%	67%	67%	+7.6%
≤30d	3	-15.4%	-23.5%	67%	67%	+7.6%
≤90d	3	-15.4%	-23.5%	67%	67%	+7.6%
all	3	-15.4%	-23.5%	67%	67%	+7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.5%	67%	+7.6%
10%	-30.8%	33%	-2.7%
15%	-37.5%	0%	-12.1%
20%	-43.6%	0%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$385 vs −$200 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$589

Realized+$591

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$904

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	62¢	60¢	$600	$589	−$11 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$1,296	+$265	+20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$202	−$200	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,511	+$504	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1,296	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,016	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$504	46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$1,008	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.78 · official $588.78 (match) · 9 history records