Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa580…54dc world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$21
other 28% −$17
sports 9% +$16
politics 5% −$4
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 34 -1.1% -10.6% 26% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 60 -3.9% -13.1% 28% 2% -10.2%
all 85 -1.9% -11.2% 28% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 61
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage282d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+257%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $60 −$6 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $84 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $97 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $3 $0 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $381 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $400 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $172 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $201 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $87 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $85 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $261 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $108 −$14 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $79 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $108 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $98 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 −$6 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $217 −$3 -2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $117 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $40 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $113 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $39 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $3 $0 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $51 +$2 +5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $18 $0 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $93 40h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $94 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $77 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $85 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $83 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $77 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $63 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $84 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.79 · official $85.00 · 467 history records