Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa57b…c8f3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$215 (-52%) realized −$204 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$136
other 48% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-70.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -67.1% -70.2% 20% 20% -74.7%
≤30d 5 -67.1% -70.2% 20% 20% -74.7%
≤90d 5 -67.1% -70.2% 20% 20% -74.7%
all 5 -67.1% -70.2% 20% 20% -74.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.2% 20% -74.7%
10% -73.1% 20% -77.1%
15% -75.7% 20% -79.3%
20% -78.0% 20% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$59 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage30d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $48 $37 −$11 (-24%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Ghana 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 26¢ 26¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $48 +$31 +65%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $69 −$68 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 26¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 75¢ $20 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $69 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $48 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 46h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.87 · official $114.87 (match) · 41 history records