Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa579…9a69
weather · 13 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$2 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? No 82¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? No 86¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 80¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? No 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 73¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? No 76¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 64¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 62¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.6% +12.7% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤30d 1 +24.6% +12.7% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤90d 1 +24.6% +12.7% 100% 100% +12.7%
all 1 +24.6% +12.7% 100% 100% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.7% 100% +12.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.9% 100% +1.9%
15% -7.9% 0% -7.9%
20% -17.0% 0% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.60 (match) · 21 history records