Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa578…4c8c sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+18%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$27
other 32% $0
sports 31% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.7% +38.2% 100% 100% +38.2%
≤30d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 67% +26.0%
≤90d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 67% +26.0%
all 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 67% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 67% +26.0%
10% -16.8% 67% +14.0%
15% -24.9% 67% +3.0%
20% -32.2% 67% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage29d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 72¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $51 +$27 +53%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $34 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $77 1h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 64¢ $5 16d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 65¢ $3 26d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $51 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.02 · official $76.02 (match) · 7 history records