trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 64% | 64% | +35.9% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +18.8% | +7.4% | 67% | 62% | +46.6% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +14.8% | +3.8% | 65% | 61% | +31.0% |
| all | 31 | +19.1% | +7.8% | 61% | 58% | +30.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.8% | 58% | +30.4% |
| 10% | -2.5% | 55% | +17.9% |
| 15% | -12.0% | 48% | +6.5% |
| 20% | -20.6% | 39% | -3.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $925 | $918 | −$7 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $350 | $347 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $275 | $273 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $275 | $273 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 60¢ | 57¢ | $275 | $264 | −$11 (-4%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $250 | $224 | −$26 (-10%) |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 86¢ | $149 | $155 | +$6 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 19 | $347 | −$339 | -98% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $507 | −$30 | -6% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $1,011 | +$535 | +53% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $1,015 | +$1,023 | +101% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $252 | +$73 | +29% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $751 | +$297 | +40% |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | Jun 18 | $500 | −$493 | -99% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $1,013 | +$740 | +73% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $1,010 | +$483 | +48% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 14 | $500 | −$485 | -97% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $1,788 | +$3,247 | +182% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $991 | +$220 | +22% |
| Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 13 | $322 | −$315 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $102 | +$111 | +109% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $505 | +$178 | +35% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $5,069 | +$4,181 | +82% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $558 | −$550 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $4,075 | +$72 | +2% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $4,076 | +$6,724 | +165% |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | May 23 | $338 | −$325 | -96% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $202 | +$106 | +52% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $505 | +$230 | +46% |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 07 | $2,975 | −$2,975 | -100% |
| Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 16 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $500 | +$306 | +61% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Feb 28 | $700 | +$1,013 | +145% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1,500 | +$1,454 | +97% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $2,500 | +$8,747 | +350% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Feb 03 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 14 | $3,527 | −$3,527 | -100% |