Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa576…030a crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate63%39W / 23L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$2
other 29% $0
crypto 21% +$104
economics 3% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 62 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 2% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 2% -8.1%
10% -24.4% 2% -16.9%
15% -31.7% 2% -24.9%
20% -38.4% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×13.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.44 per $1 lost it wins $24.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses39 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage578d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 22 $31 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Mar 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? Dec 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 10? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET Nov 06 $100 +$100 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,030 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 09 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 14? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 14? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,075 $0 +0%
Will Mary Lou McDonald be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $3 $0 +2%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Fed rate hike in 2024? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Harris win Colorado by 8+ points? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) Dec 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $7 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Nov 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Nov 26 $3 $0 +3%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Nov 20 $381 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $31 60d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 103d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $7 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $4 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $4 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 117d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 159d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 178d
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 226d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 227d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 227d
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? BUY No 99¢ $5 244d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $200 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $200 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $999 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 255d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? BUY No 96¢ $18 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 143 history records