Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa574…efe0 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized −$193 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%50W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$100
14 days−$66
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$121
other 25% −$313
politics 12% +$429
tech 7% −$73
finance 2% −$142
culture 1% +$48
crypto 1% +$10
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 67% 33% -23.0%
≤30d 12 -9.2% -17.9% 75% 58% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -3.9% -13.1% 74% 61% -15.6%
all 66 -3.2% -12.5% 76% 59% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 59% -11.4%
10% -20.8% 35% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 12% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$122 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$1,769
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses50 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)66 / 73
History coverage258d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 99¢ $486 $644 +$157 (+32%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $266 $257 −$9 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $206 $242 +$36 (+17%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $232 $234 +$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $201 $218 +$16 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $106 $167 +$61 (+58%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 83¢ 98¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$8 +8%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 +$41 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $126 −$124 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $99 +$35 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $112 +$28 +25%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $141 −$140 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$50 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $426 +$74 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $199 +$51 +26%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $68 +$32 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 04 $490 −$490 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $190 +$10 +6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $562 −$62 -11%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 03 $276 −$276 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $132 +$68 +52%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $186 +$114 +61%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? Apr 11 $178 +$22 +12%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $26 +$11 +43%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 06 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $92 +$23 +25%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 01 $106 +$14 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $154 +$46 +30%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $255 +$45 +18%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? Apr 01 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $324 +$76 +24%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Apr 01 $452 +$135 +30%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? Mar 09 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $178 +$22 +12%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $101 +$19 +19%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $382 +$18 +5%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $201 +$99 +50%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026? Feb 27 $197 +$23 +11%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026? Feb 19 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026? Feb 16 $291 +$19 +6%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11? Jan 14 $267 +$33 +12%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026? Jan 12 $613 −$213 -35%
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? Jan 08 $465 +$35 +8%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026? Jan 07 $229 +$121 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY No 83¢ $6 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $108 10d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,768.88 · official $1,768.88 (match) · 362 history records