Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa573…417f crypto 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$404 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%285W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$196
14 days+$205
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$559
other 8% +$112
sports 4% +$66
tech 4% +$32
finance 3% +$30
weather 1% −$85
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +6.8% -3.4% 74% 66% -3.8%
≤30d 207 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 61% -8.6%
≤90d 379 -6.1% -15.1% 69% 49% -15.3%
all 408 -5.4% -14.4% 70% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 48% -12.1%
10% -22.6% 30% -20.5%
15% -30.0% 20% -28.2%
20% -36.9% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses285 / 123
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)408 / 427
History coverage193d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 73¢ 53¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 43¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +49%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Qat Jun 14 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $107 +$38 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $73 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$10 +20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $228 −$55 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $129 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $91 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $73 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $70 +$6 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $43 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $10 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $3 12h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 51¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 18¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.38 · official $185.38 · 1073 history records