Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa572…0fa2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-23%) realized −$129 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$81
other 20% −$13
crypto 6% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 33% -39.4%
≤30d 3 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 33% -39.4%
≤90d 3 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 33% -39.4%
all 3 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 33% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 33% -39.4%
10% -49.3% 33% -45.2%
15% -54.2% 33% -50.5%
20% -58.7% 33% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$115 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) K27 49¢ 50¢ $128 $131 +$3 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $130 +$112 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 23 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.72 · official $137.72 (match) · 13 history records