Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa566…72de sports 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,556 (+1%) realized +$2,574 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate39%92W / 143L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day63.2pace
Fees−$2,953est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,779
other 18% +$90
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +24.4% +12.6% 37% 12% -16.7%
≤30d 97 +3.2% -6.6% 34% 8% -15.1%
≤90d 235 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 15% -10.4%
all 235 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 15% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 15% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 6% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$61 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$2,574
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses92 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,953
Open positions2
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$786
Trades / day63.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $405 $392 −$13 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $688 −$105 -15%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $606 −$32 -5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $601 −$8 -1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $3,003 −$12 -0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $5,140 −$836 -16%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 +$84 +9512%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,199 −$11 -1%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $2,855 +$167 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,936 −$156 -3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,065 −$101 -10%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $911 +$35 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,903 +$56 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,212 −$7 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$3 +4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $702 +$8 +1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 -16%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +18%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $305 −$19 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$10 -85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,828 +$405 +14%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,478 −$45 -3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$9 -8%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $96 +$3 +3%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $397 +$29 +7%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $433 +$5 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $200 +$10 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,645 −$67 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5,797 −$3,425 -59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3,404 +$51 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,708 −$8 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $501 +$42 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $859 +$574 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $513 −$86 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $532 −$65 -12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $545 +$552 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $90 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $61 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $574 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $606 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $177 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $9 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $8 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $17 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $18 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $22 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $19 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.26 · official $392.26 (match) · 3500 history records