Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa564…e542 other 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$338 (-2%) realized −$349 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%192W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$133
14 days−$110
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$671
crypto 19% +$21
finance 11% +$56
tech 4% +$224
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 0% -29.5%
≤30d 14 -6.9% -15.7% 79% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 86 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 5% -10.7%
all 217 -1.8% -11.1% 88% 4% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -11.2%
10% -19.6% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$47 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses192 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage203d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 95¢ 99¢ $260 $271 +$11 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Jun 17 $150 +$10 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 15 $200 −$64 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 14 $101 −$84 -83%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $150 +$5 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 05 $621 +$23 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 01 $232 −$25 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 01 $301 +$16 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 30 $230 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $200 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $200 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $200 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 24 $188 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week May 20 $421 +$11 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 17 $301 −$52 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 14? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 14? May 16 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 05 $301 −$199 -66%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 03 $201 +$10 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 03 $200 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $292 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $100 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will BNB reach $700 in April? May 02 $184 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $210 +$7 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Google reach $375 in April? Apr 30 $87 +$213 +243%
Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? Apr 30 $40 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Tesla reach $488 in April? Apr 30 $50 $0 +0%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 29 $50 −$11 -21%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $70 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 28 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? Apr 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 28 $138 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 27 $310 +$5 +2%
Will Meta reach $810 in April? Apr 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? Apr 26 $50 +$4 +9%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April? Apr 24 $93 −$2 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 22 $200 +$8 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Apr 21 $170 +$14 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $150 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 100¢ $160 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 67¢ $68 39h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 68¢ $68 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL No 16¢ $17 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 93¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 93¢ $151 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $156 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 96¢ $100 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 89¢ $101 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 93¢ $100 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 98¢ $100 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 100¢ $644 11d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 96¢ $220 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 74¢ $207 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 96¢ $401 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week SELL No 99¢ $317 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 100¢ $101 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 83¢ $101 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 99¢ $102 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 81¢ $131 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 97¢ $132 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 97¢ $30 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 99¢ $100 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week BUY No 94¢ $301 17d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 96¢ $200 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.62 · official $420.89 (match) · 508 history records