Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa561…f676
politics · 70 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$112 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$135 · open −$179
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$325
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions22
Markets (closed)46 / 70
History coverage45d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 22 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$251
14 days+$14
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 49¢ 50¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $99 $4 −$95 (-95%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-87%)
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $11 $3 −$9 (-77%)
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-86%)
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will Nicolae Ciucă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $41 −$21 -52%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +200%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $95 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 08 $67 −$47 -70%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $178 −$12 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $127 +$150 +118%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $80 −$45 -56%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 +$80 +99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $82 +$79 +97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28? May 29 $37 −$37 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 28? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 28? May 29 $80 −$58 -72%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 27 $89 −$2 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $93 −$3 -3%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 24 $26 +$51 +193%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $29 +$71 +244%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 24 $20 +$33 +166%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $128 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $129 −$2 -2%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $9 +$66 +738%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$54 +118%
Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 17 $140 −$1 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $68 +$29 +43%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $62 −$30 -48%
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $142 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 05 $166 −$40 -24%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 04 $19 −$1 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $75 −$1 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $355 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $449 +$20 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $50 −$19 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $90 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$77
politics 18% −$50
sports 13% +$229
world 12% −$14
finance 9% −$109
crypto 7% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States BUY 10¢ $10 13h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 42¢ $12 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $160 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY 5¢ $10 34h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 42¢ $30 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $53 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $29 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $1 2d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 3d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 50¢ $96 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 35¢ $35 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 61¢ $61 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 50¢ $3 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL No 64¢ $3 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.6% -20.9% 30% 20% -46.2%
≤30d 38 +27.4% +15.3% 45% 34% -2.5%
≤90d 46 +21.5% +9.9% 43% 28% -5.9%
all 46 +21.5% +9.9% 43% 28% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 28% -5.9%
10% -0.6% 26% -14.9%
15% -10.2% 26% -23.2%
20% -19.0% 24% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.38 · official $335.38 · 407 history records